The year of democracy?

Deutsche Bank, 2024

Over 2500 years ago a revolutionary concept was coined giving rise to what is now synonymous of freedom. From a combination of the Greek terms for 'the people' and 'power' or 'rule', this idea spread and was fought for. While it may come across as an irrational fear, simply establishing a democracy is not sufficient to ensure its permanence: we must continue to defend it (Financial times, 2024).

This year marks a rare occurrence: more than 70 democratic(-ish for too many) states will hold elections. As if this decade hadn't brought about enough change and uncertainty (and we're not even half way through) about half of the world's adult population will have the chance to cast their vote in 2024. But there is more to democracy than voting (The Economist, 2023).

USA
What will another 4 years of Biden mean and look like? How about Trump II? As of right now the US is involved in two hot wars. If re-elected Trump said he'd end the conflict in Ukraine 'in 24 hours' without providing detail causing concern in Ukraine over what exactly these negotiations would entail. Considering how a war in Europe has impacted the local economy peace would be welcome although we don't know whether Trump would pursue his previous plans of exiting NATO.
Overall it is fair to assume US's Middle Eastern partners would prefer a Republican administration: from President Biden's gaffe towards KSA to the disastrous pull-out from Afghanistan at the start of his presidency. All this without mentioning how many Americans are unhappy with the ongoing support for Israel. 
Meanwhile, US-China relations have deteriorated and tensions in the Asia Pacific region have risen. While Trump's re-election would bring about a large shift in the US' foreign and internal policy, it'll likely need the support of strong global alliances (BBC, 2024).

EU
The world's biggest economy, and the second biggest democracy will hold its parliamentary elections this year. In nearly a dozen EU member states, far-right parties are in government or in pole position. Much can change between now and June and there is a growing understanding that some matters can only be addressed at a bloc level. Most of Europe’s nationalist parties have dropped or rowed back on any plan to follow Britain out of the EU: the debate is no longer pro or anti, but 'what kind' (The Guardian, 2024).

UK
Marked by strong anti-incumbency sentiment this year's elections are anticipated to be the most crucial in Europe. Predictions suggest that voters are likely to choose a Labour Party government. The Conservative Party, in power for nearly 14 years, faces a substantial polling gap, with the Labour Party leading by over 20 percentage points. Despite potential fluctuations as the economy stabilises and inflation decreases, it is expected that Labour will secure a working majority regardless of whether elections are delayed or not (Economist Intelligence, 2023). What will this mean for an economy still deciphering the impact of the double-barrelled Brexit plus COVID combo?

The world's most populous countries will also hold elections this year. Brazil's municipal elections will put Lula’s party to the test on whether it can make gains at the expense of the Bolsonaro-backed Liberal party. India's Nadendra Modi and his BJP appear confident in securing re-election in their third five-year term. Mexico is looking to elect its first female president (Forbes, 2024).

Show of freedom
Taiwan
 is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors and a major shipping route between China, Japan, Europe, and America with 88% of the world’s largest ships passing through these waters. While maintaining its commitment to the “One China policy,” the Biden administration has shown greater willingness to defend Taiwan’s security approving more arms sales with China intensifying its military threat over the past two years. The US' involvement would bring the two superpowers into direct confrontation, with profound regional and global security implications (The Diplomat, 2024).

Over 700 days have not lessened the affront at democracy induced by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Both nations are planning on carrying out elections this year for different reasons: Ukraine's will be a show of defiance, independence and democracy despite the ongoing war (Politico EU, 2023); Russia to (drumroll please) re-elect Putin, effectively showing who's still calling the shots in the ongoing conflict (The Guardian, 2024). 

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